Jakarta bombs 2009: what next for resurgent JI ?

On the 17th of July 2009, 2 bombs at two Western hotels in Jakarta, Indonesia killed 7 civilians (and the two suicide bombers). 6 of the 7 were foreigners: 3 Australians, 2 Dutch, and 1 New Zealander. The seventh was a waiter at the JW Marriott.

So what lessons might be drawn from these attacks ?

Firstly and perhaps most obviously, the terrorists appear to have studied last year’s Mumbai hotel attacks. There, LeT fedayeen checked in as guests and operated from a room inside the Taj hotel. That lesson was replicated by Jemaah Islamiyah: 3 (or more) operatives were seen using room 1808 at the JW Marriott, and they appear to have constructed (or at least assembled prepared components for) their IEDs.

Secondly, they appear to have attempted to repeat one of their own, previously successful, tactics. In Bali in 2002, one of the devices detonated in Paddy’s Pub, naturally causing survivors and bystanders to flee towards the street. Which is where the other – vehicle-borne - device was waiting. Most of the casualties were caused by that second bomb.

In the Marriott, the device later found intact in room 1808 was set to detonate prior to the morning attacks. So if that had gone off first, as apparently planned, it would have caused panic and driven guests towards the foyer and main entrance, where the as-yet-unidentified bomber would have had a truly target-rich environment. As it happened, that device failed, and is now one the key leads that Indonesian police believe points toward Noordin Mohammed Top.

Thirdly, the use of near-simultaneous attacks was again demonstrated to be highly desirable to Islamist terrorists. The follow-on to the Marriott restaurant bomb occurred in the entrance area of the adjacent Ritz-Carlton hotel less than 5 minutes later.

All considered, a pretty good day for JI, and a riposte to those analysts who’d written them off after they failed to strike back last November when the 2002 Bali bombers were executed.

And now there’s much thought by the Indonesian security agencies, and the many involved Western agencies, as to what happens next.

What looks likely ? Let’s ponder:

The attackers appear to have learned from Mumbai ? Combine that thought with the strong desire to avoid Indonesian casualties, and you have to think guns and maybe grenades. So why not those on July 17 ? Perhaps it’s coming. If they’d done that first, the current increased security at the Western hotels (more front-of-house, more armed external guards, discreet armed guards outside the breakfast restaurant) would more closely resemble Baghdad’s Green Zone defences. So, why would you do that first if your other option is suicide attackers ? Sequencing is everything…


Keeping with the ‘avoid local casualties’ theme, and the previous JI experience of car-bombs, perhaps something like the Karachi attack on the US consulate in March 2006 ? There, a suicide bomber rammed a US consulate vehicle with his VBIED, killing 4 including a US diplomat. There’s potential to limit collateral damage by being very selective, and, the strong possibility of succeeding in killing their target, given the weight of explosive a vehicle can carry.

So, one layman’s view of what JI may do next might be:

Option 1 – Mumbai-style, guns and grenades on hotels, shopping malls or other soft Western targets.

Option 2 – VBIED directed against specific, possibly high-value, target. Perhaps, as in Karachi, a diplomatic one.

Or maybe both…

Thoughts anyone ?