India/Pakistan: Watch and wait...

Mumbai blasted again, the usual suspects across the border, angry words and urgent investigations - so far, so much the same? But the big difference this time will come in the aftermath.

In 2008, Indians raged, but America placated, cajoled, threatened. The war in AfPak against AQ and the Taliban was too important to the Whitehouse to have it derailed by an Indo-Pak skirmish. But right here, right now, barely weeks after the USA's own intervention against a terrorist enemy securely hunkered down in Pakistan's heartland, who in New Delhi will listen to anything Washington may have to say?

Also in 2008, Pakistan was itself stronger, Musharraf was recently gone amidst the stirrings of a "new democracy", but the Army still confidently dominated, terrorism was a problem, but kept within boundaries, bubbling beneath the surface. No more. Pakistan is weakened, morally and physically, pressed from without and from within. And India has risen further, faster, over the intervening years, outstripping its Muslim neighbour economically, politically and militarily.

The generals in Delhi are now the focus. Behind closed doors, their ruminations on retaliation, 'surgical strikes' against terrorist training camps, air and missile attacks and so forth, could affect us all. These are two nuclear-armed rivals, and the potential trigger for a mistaken conflict could be a matter of weeks or days away.

The US must now consider what it can do, in the event of an understandable Indian strike, to mitigate the possibility of escalation. Hot heads in Islamabad will seek an 'eye for an eye', minds closed to the idea that their failings led to this situation. Their air force is capable, albeit smaller than India's, but with F-16s and motivated aircrew, a retaliatory strike is a distinct possibility. And thereafter, no way to stop the tit-for-tat advance to larger scale operations. Mobilisation of both armies, deploying to the border as happened in the Kargil War would open the door to teh possibility of mis-steps once imagined in Cold War central Europe. Where once the war machine has started to move, its momentum is difficult to halt.

These are dangerous times, and the MSM are (as usual) behind the curve.

Watch and wait...